The First World War was an unprecedented catastrophe that shaped our modern world . Erik Sass is covering the effect of the state of war incisively 100 days after they bechance . This is the 126th installment in the serial publication .
5 December 2024: Austrians Decide on War with Serbia
Theassassinationof Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his married woman Sophie in Sarajevo on June 28 , 1914 , shocked Europe — but few , if any , guessed it would spark the greatest war in history . And yet , by the first days of July , the wheel of luck had already been gear up in motion by a fistful of brawny men meeting behind closed doors in Vienna .
At first , in the immediate aftermath of the Sarajevo slaying , it appeared via media and accommodation might smooth over a serious — but not necessarily catastrophic — diplomatic crisis . Most informed observers expected Austria - Hungary to make some rugged demands on Serbia , which would have to make bowing . Serbian Prime Minister Nikola Pašić ( whotriedto foil the conspiracy ) proceed to placate Austria - Hungary by condemning the crime and sending condolence to Vienna . On the other side the German ambassador to Vienna , Heinrich von Tschirschky , monish the Austrians against “ overhasty measure . ” But when the plotters were interrogated , it did n’t take long for the Austrian authorities to uncover theroleof Serbian army officer .
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stack of people already suppose that Serbia was snarl with the assassination : On July 1 , the Gallic embassador to Belgrade , Léon Descos , note in a letter of the alphabet to Paris that the Serbian nationalistic drift had “ permit itself to be drag by the military - party towards fresh methods and objectives … The very circumstances of the offense deceive the creation of a national organization the ending of which are easy to imagine . ” And the Serbian charge d’affaires in Paris later admitted that the Black Hand “ were so powerful and had succeeded so well in concealing their activeness … that it was impossible to intercept them … Pašić have it away ! We all knew ! But nothing could be done . ”
So while the Austrians were n’t quite clear on the structure of the conspiracy , they were basically correct in connecting the assassins to officials in Belgrade , include Milan Ciganović and Major Vojislav Tankosić , the ripe - hand world to Apis . And that was enough to bring the public twig down .
Whatever he might say in populace , Pašić , for one , guessed what was coming , gloomily forebode on the afternoon of June 28 , “ It is very bad , it will intend war . ” The next solar day , he order Ciganović , who had help oneself the schemer while also serve as an informer inside the Black Hand , smuggled out of Serbia to Montenegro to keep him out of reach of investigators .
But before the investigation even began , the Austrians had already decide to adjudicate accounts with Serbia . The prime movers were thebellicosechief of the general faculty , Conrad von Hötzendorf ( top , plaza ) , and Foreign Minister Berchtold ( top , correct ) , who agreed on warfare against Serbia no after than July 2 , and immediately set to work win over Emperor Franz Josef ( top , left ) .
Their cooperation reflected a new alignment . At first , Berchtold — who freely let in he knew little of Balkan affairs on his naming as foreign minister in February 1912 — believe that Austria - Hungary could handle with Serbia without repair to violence . But from 1912 - 1914 , he acquire more and more spoil with the intractable Serbs and used the menace of military action to force Serbia to give upAlbaniain December 1912 , then to force Serbia ’s chum Montenegro to give up the strategic city ofScutariin May 1913 , and again to pressure Serbia towithdrawtroops from eastern Albania in September 1913 .
And still it went on : In the spring of 1914 , the Austrian alien diplomatic minister suspect ( correctly ) that the Serbs were covertly supporting Esad Pasha Toptani , a powerful Albanian kin group leader and former Ottoman officer , who organized arebellionagainst the Prince of Wied , Berchtold ’s preferred candidate for the Albanian throne . Berchtold was also alarmed by rumors that Serbia would absorb Montenegro , gain memory access to the sea and coiffure the stage for the final struggle to unloosen the Dual Monarchy ’s Southern Slavic people . In short , the assassination of the Archduke was just the latest in an ongoing series of incitement by Serbia , all exacerbating the “ literal issue”—the malcontent temper among the conglomerate ’s own South Slavs , who take care to their ethnic kinsman for release . In this linguistic context , Conrad ’s repeated calls for warfare against Serbia became more and more persuasive ; the scandalization in Sarajevo simply provided the pretext .
Of course , Berchtold and Conrad were n’t the sole determination - Creator — but Emperor Franz Josef was also leaning towards state of war . encounter with the German ambassador Tschirschky on July 2 , he enjoin he ask to confer with Kaiser Wilhelm II , “ For I see the succeeding very calamitous … and conditions [ in the Balkans ] grow more disquieting every daylight . I do not know if we can continue any longer to look on passively and I desire that your Kaiser also measures the menace which the contiguousness of Serbia signify for the Monarchy . ” To this Tschirschky replied , “ His Majesty can surely rely on finding Germany solidly behind the Monarchy as soon as there is a question of defending one of its vital interest . ”
Tschirschky had obviously changed his melody from just a few day before , reflecting newfangled orders from Berlin , which shared Vienna’sfearsthat Slavic nationalism would counteract Austria - Hungary — leaving Germany to face the Triple Entente of France , Russia and Britain alone . As ahead of time as October 1913 , the KaiserassuredBerchtold , “ The Slavs are hold not to rule but to obey … Belgrade shall be bombard and concern until the will of His Majesty [ Franz Josef ] has been carried out . And you could be sure that I will back you and am ready to quarter the sabre any time your activity makes it necessary . ”
Now Wilhelm , traumatized by the red of his friend Franz Ferdinand , come out a sharp reproof to Tschirschky for advising constraint in Vienna , scribbling in the margins of the embassador ’s June 30 written report : “ Will Tschirschky have the good to drop this nonsense ! It is high sentence a clean sweep oar was made of the Serbs , ” adding , “ Now or never ! ” In the same venous blood vessel , on July 1 , Victor Naumann , a German publiciser with tight ties to Foreign Secretary Jagow , visited Vienna and told Berchtold ’s honcho of staff , Count Hoyos , that “ after the Sarajevo murder , it was a issue of life sentence and death for the Monarchy not to leave this offence unpunished but to annihilate Serbia … Austria - Hungary will be complete as a Monarchy and as a Great Power if she does not take vantage of this moment . ”
Through formal and loose channels , Germany was already barrack Austria - Hungary to roleplay . The next step was for Count Hoyos to carry a personal letter from Franz Josef to Wilhelm , formally asking for German bread and butter for the planned reckoning with Serbia . But it was already clean-cut that Berlin and Vienna were in correspondence about Serbia ; the key question was whether Russia would come to Serbia ’s assistance , increasing the chance of a much broad conflict . Here , in the first of a series of fatal misapprehension , the German and Austrian leadership were confident that the war could be “ place , ” meaning limited to Austria - Hungary and Serbia .
Meanwhile , the rest of the continent remained forgetful to the assemblage storm . July was holiday season , and many members of the European elite group had already left swelter metropolis for country landed estate , health spas , and beachside retreat . The next-to-last official who remained behind to man the desks had even less of an idea what was brew . Hugh Gibson , the new escritoire to the U.S. embassy in the Belgian capital of Brussels , wrote in his diary on July 4 : “ For the last two year I have front frontwards to just such a post as this , where nothing ever hap , where there is no earthly prospect of being called out of bottom in the midsection of the nighttime to see the human wash brawling over its remainder . ” At the end of that fateful month Gibson felt it necessary to clarify : “ No , my recent remarks about nothing ever happening in Brussels were not intended as sarcasm . ”
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