Earth Is Safe From Menacing Asteroid—but Our Moon Might Take the Hit

An asteroid is maneuver toward a close coming to Earth on December 22 , 2032 . But reverence not , the Webb Space Telescope just re - sustain that asteroid 2024 YR4 has a virtually 0 % chance of crash into Earth . That pronounce , stargazer are ineffectual to decree out a potential impact with the Moon .

The Asteroid Terrestrial - impact Last Alert System ( ATLAS ) in Chilediscoveredthe asteroid on December 27 , 2024 . Shortly after its find , asteroid 2024 YR4 was deemed potentially risky , with theodds of it striking Earth reaching intimately 3 % . Those betting odds are n’t monolithic , but when it comes to the potential threat of a city - sea wolf asteroid , ideally you want them to be close to a zero - chance probability . On February 20 , NASAremoved 2024 YR4 from its naughty listafter calculation demo that the asteroid had a near - zero probability of hit Earth .

Phew . The news gets even better — young observations from Webb double down on the verification : the asteroid poses no scourge to Earth . As for the Moon , that ’s apparently another matter .

An illustration of an asteroid drifting through space.

An illustration of an asteroid drifting through space.NASA/JPL-Caltech

When it was first make out , asteroid 2024 YR4 was 515,116 mile ( 829,000 kilometers ) aside from Earth . Since then , the blank rock has strike aside from us , and its next tight approaching wo n’t be until December 2028 . Ground - ground telescope from the International Asteroid Warning web have been tracking the asteroid , but it will be too faint to observe until June 2028 , allot to NASA . That ’s whyWebb was call in for the job , measuring the asteroid ’s luminosity across a range of infrared wavelengths to better determine its size .

In late January , a squad of scientist propose using the mid - infrared instrument on Webb to observe the asteroid and better understand its damage potency . The team lately relinquish thepreliminary resultsof Webb ’s observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 , suggesting that , while the asteroid is larger and rockier than previous notice , it has almost a 0 % chance of remove Earth during its upcoming flyby . The results have not yet been submit for match review and publication .

Webb first spotted the asteroid on March 26 , observing it as it rotated every 20 bit over a five - minute - long flow . Using Webb ’s observations , the investigator determine that the asteroid was slightly larger than antecedently believed . Initial estimates suggest that the asteroid measures between 130 and 300 foot full ( 40 and 90 metre ) ground on its reflected light . Webb ’s observations , however , measure the asteroid at 200 feet ( 60 time ) wide .

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The recent observations also suggest that the surface of the asteroid is cool than most other asteroid of its same size and distance from the Sun , which may be because asteroid 2024 YR4 is rockier than common . The team will use Webb to observe the asteroid again in May to serve refine its caloric and orbital property .

Webb ’s watching may have rule out an Earth wallop in seven yr , but the results suggest that the asteroid “ continue to have a non - zero probability of impacting the Moon at this time , ” the research worker concluded . The Moon has belike endured thousands of asteroid impacts during its 4.5 - billion - year history , but it ’s not yet clear what would bechance if asteroid 2024 YR4 chance upon our born orbiter . At its current sizing estimate , the asteroid would belike turn about 8 megatons of vigour during impact — which is more than 500 times the energy released by the atomic turkey drop down on Hiroshima in 1945 , and corresponding to the energy released in theTunguska blastof 1908 , according toNASA .

The potential Moon impingement would give up scientist the rare opportunity to observe a lunar crater being formed decently before their eyes ( assuming it hits within our view from Earth ) , and make a better understanding of the violent story of the solar system .

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