Gray Goo Scenarios and How to Avoid Them

The prospect of self - replicating nanobots devouring the Earth is a frightening one , indeed . But as Idea Couture farsightedness strategian Jayar LaFontaine explains , there are some practical things we can do to forbid such nightmare from happening .

In a lecture delivered in 1948 , mathematician John Von Neumann first described the potential for machine to build utter copies of themselves using material source from the world around them . Almost immediately , masses began to interest about what might befall if they never stopped . Writing decades afterward about the science of molecular nanotechnology – in other words , microscopically small man - made automobile – Eric Drexler fall in this worry a name : Gray Goo .

A Gray Goo scenario works something like this : Imagine a piece of ego - replicate nanotechnology manufactured for a purely sympathetic reason . Say , a micro - being design to clean up oil slicks by consuming them and secrete some benign by - product . So far , so expert . Except the organism ca n’t seem to distinguish between the carbon paper atoms in the oil slick and the atomic number 6 atoms in the sea botany , ocean creature , and human beingness around it all that well . Flash forrard a few thousand generation – perhaps not a very long time in our ideate micro - organism ’s life cycle – and everything on Earth containing even a hint of carbon paper has been turn into a benign , gray , and gooey byproduct of its digestive process .

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An Important Moral Lesson

In Gray Goo processes , the stakes are in high spirits and the scourge of ruin is always imminent , which is why they make for ripping good science fiction yarn . But stories of Gray Goo also carry an important moral lesson : A individual scheme – or physical process , or approximation – excogitate with good design but applied willy-nilly , or clumsily , can lead to catastrophically damaging consequences that are near unstoppable . And while Gray Goo events sound alien , once we set up away the talk of runaway nanotechnology , we can begin to see the ingredients of these events in our routine world . Among them are idealistic agents with imperfect noesis , poorly thought - out strategies , and a fat spiritualist in which to spread out fault , and systemic and self - reinforcing shower issue .

No domain of human life story is imperviable to the risk of Gray Goo processes , but some are better metier than others . A general rule of thumb is that the more large , complex , and interlink a world is , the more susceptible it is to Gray Goo . Few domains better fit this description than biological ecosystems : A moral that humans have had to see and relearn many times over during the last few hundred year , throughout which we ’ve try on introducing specie into foreign ecosystem with often disastrous resultant role .

The introduction of cane toads into Australia are an symbolical example of our failure to foresee the obvious risks of Gray Goo processes . After conventional methods of blighter control failed to reduce the universe of mallet that were damaging sugar cane crop , in 1935 the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations imported cane toads from Hawaii and put out them into the wild in Leslie Townes Hope that they would prey on the worm . Since their release , cane batrachian have rapidly multiplied in population and spread across northwestern Australia . Current estimates put their numeral over 200 million , and they have been blamed for the spread of diseases that negatively impact local fauna . A last indignity : The toad look to have had no real impact on the mallet population they were meant to scale down .

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Another domain that is rife with the potential for Gray Goo summons is the earth of finance . Postmortems of the 2008 fiscal crisis often refer to it , in risk scholar Nassim Taleb ’s parlance , as a Black Swan issue : An extremely uncommon but highly impacting serial of events that are obvious only with the benefit of hindsight . rarified and impacting , yes – but not purely speaking beyond our prognostic powers . At its heart was the recitation of sub - prime lending : A kind of Gray Goo process built around the rash intermixture of the goodwill and just intentions to spread out homeownership , a citation environment that enable easy deployment and replication of high - risk loans , and a toxic accumulation of a byproduct , unrepayable debt .

Taleb himself has turned his direction to a discussion of Gray Goo - like physical process recently , especially as they apply to the science of present - day genetically modified organisms . Taleb trust the risks inherent in the creation and distribution of genetically modify organisms are not well sympathize or appreciated by researchers in the theatre , who are typically train in the biological sciences , and not in statistic or risk analysis . They are therefore apposite to deploy traditional conclusion do strategies focused on extenuate the danger of harm , when in fact they should be basing their decisiveness on the hazard of total and irreversible ruin .

One of the cardinal personal effects of globalisation and the interconnectedness enable by information technology is that all human systems are becoming progressively complex , and so more and more susceptible to the Gray Goo effects we point out in the demesne of biological ecosystems . Along with the potential for fateful asteroid strikes , gamma ray bursts , and super volcano eruptions , the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University – a think tank car dedicate to evaluate risks that might terminate human life on Earth – lists such homo - led try as artificial intelligence , anthropogenetic climate change , and molecular nanotechnology among its key country of enquiry . The threat of Gray Goo and the risk of wrecking , it seems , is on the advance . Whether we are up to the challenge of adjusting the way we think about risk and thinking thoroughly about how our choices impact our increasingly complex world remains to be see .

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Avoiding Gray Goo Scenarios

Let your mind regard the worst possible outcome . Are you essentially deal with the risk of harm – falling short of quarterly remuneration , for example , or the jeopardy of ruin – such as the destruction of your marque ’s equity or consumer goodwill ?

Do n’t let righteousness mottle your legal opinion . act in salutary faith and have philanthropic aims is n’t enough . No pharmaceutical company ever coiffure out to design a drug that drink down their customers . As John Milton wrote : “ Easy is the line of descent into Hell , for it is pave with expert intentions . ”

Be fair with yourself about how minuscule control you have . Once you put the rack in motion , how leisurely is it to apply a braking mechanism , assuming you have one ? And if you do n’t have one , do n’t you think it would be prudent if you did , just in case ?

Photo: Jae C. Hong

Do n’t apply a hammer to do a screwdriver ’s job . Devising a multiplicity of prick and processes to address unlike challenges take more effort , but it minimizes the likelihood that you ’ll end up doing irreparable harm through endeavor to be expedient .

surround garden are in effect . Use them . If the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations had introduced cane toads into a secure enclosure to quiz their adaptation to the Australian surround before loose them into the wild , maybe the continent would n’t be overrun by the obnoxious species .

As Depicted in Science Fiction

Cat ’s Cradle , Kurt Vonnegut

Vonnegut imagined a polymorph of water supply called Ice - Nine that would straight off convert all water it came in contact with into a first-rate - static ice - corresponding constitution . Originally developed to help military military personnel march over muddy terrain , the polymorph terminate up convert all the water on Earth to Ice - Nine , make an eternal winter .

Star Trek

Doctor Who Omega

In the Star Trek world , a raceway of rapacious , zombi - similar , cybernetic creatures visit the Borg transubstantiate any life history form they encounter into more Borg by injecting them with microscopic nanoprobes . Their intentions are , from their perspective , large-hearted : to uplift naive cultures into the Borg so that they can join their quest to “ achieve paragon . ” The issue , however , is a horrifying form of technological collectivism that totally subsumes the soul and make them an agent of unutterable terror .

Jayar La Fontaine is a aged foresightfulness strategist at Idea Couture . He is based in Toronto , Canada .

This articleoriginally appearedin the MISC 2015 : The Creative Process Issue and is republished at io9 with permission .

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